It’s a great idea – Instead of being a driver who deals with chaotic traffic and other dangerous situations on the roads, you can sit back and allow the car to bring you safely to your destination. Is this a vision of the future? Well, possibly – but autonomous driving – partly due to increasingly intelligent and connected sensors – is a trend that cannot be stopped. So, what will cars and traffic look like in the future? In this article, Ralf Bornefeld at Infineon shares his vision.
I’m mobile and flexible with a car, and I really enjoy driving – at least most of the time. But it can also be really frustrating when there is no end to stop-and-go driving in heavy traffic. Even as a passionate driver, I would like an automated car that takes over the unpleasant drive through traffic jams. Only one thing really matters to me: whether I do the driving myself or whether I prefer to be driven by the car.
Automated cars will go into mass production as early as the next decade – and this will improve our lives. Individual car mobility will be even more flexible, more comfortable and, no doubt, safer. This represents the next stage in over forty years of continuous development, and in the near future this development will accelerate further.
On the way to “Vision Zero”
In 1976, Germany saw about 15,000 casualties with around 20 million cars on the roads. By 2015, casualty figures had dropped to around 3,500, despite a growth in the number of cars to almost 44 million.
By introducing mandatory seatbelt use and passive safety systems such as ABS (antilock braking system, 1978), airbags (1980) and side airbags (1996), driving a car has become safer year-by-year. Active safety systems are currently enabling the next level of development. They alert the driver to danger or can even actively intervene when they deem it necessary. As a result, so-called “Vision Zero” has become possible: road traffic without fatalities.
Remarkably, with the automated car, a fundamental paradigm shift can take place. Today, advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) support us; tomorrow they will replace the driver entirely and make every decision autonomously. However, what the automated car has lacked so far is what sets humans apart from machines: our knowledge-based experience.
Thanks to the experiences gained from countless hours of driving, we do not just evaluate situations on a rational level. Due to our highly developed and receptive senses, we are able to process a variety of situations. Our ability to assimilate complexity is remarkable, and this is not just limited to sight and sound. We build driving intuition. For example, in motor racing, the buttocks of the race driver are often referred to as the “butt meter” – providing the driver with information about the vehicle behavior or road condition. In other words, as humans we are able to link our sensory perceptions with earlier experiences for a rapid and realistic assessment of the situation.
Sensors replace senses
To create a viable automated car, it is important to recreate our power of reliable judgment. Here, sensors play a key role – they need to replace all of the drivers’ senses. The complexity and reliability of human perception can only be recreated technically if multiple, diverse sensors detect various aspects of the environment simultaneously.
Based on sensed information from camera, radar, laser and ultrasonic systems, a car can make a so-called “two out of three” decision. Meaning that, if two out of three values coincide, this value is interpreted as being correct and is then further processed. The different characteristics of the systems increase safety. Unlike purely optical systems, for example, radar systems function reliably in conditions of poor visibility, including snow, fog, heavy rain or glaring backlight.
But what about human intuition?
The numerous pieces of information are connected with the help of an intelligent software that continuously learns – but is the technology capable of replacing human intuition at the same level? In the future, there might be entirely new types of sensor that can recreate the human intuition associated with driving.
Furthermore, the car of the future will not solely rely on perceiving its immediate surroundings. Instead, all road users will share information about their environment. An individual vehicle can, thus, evaluate any situation with consideration of the wider context. For example, if our vehicle receives information from preceding vehicles that the road is slippery due to ice, our vehicle adapts its driving behavior in good time. In turn, our vehicle provides information about the traffic and driving conditions for others. Through the appropriate safety solutions, I can utilize this collective intelligence without having to reveal my personal data. Of course, this information is also available to me if I am driving the vehicle manually, and this means more safety and more fun while driving.
The car of the future is a fundamental element in the Internet of Things (IoT)
The car of the future becomes a fundamental element in the Internet of Things (IoT) as it collects data from sensors and then makes this information available. A good, early example of this can be found in map services where information is received in real time with the help of other connected road users.
Reliability and safety
Absolute reliability is the most important requirement that will allow us to delegate responsibility to the vehicle without having safety concerns. However, high levels of safety must be realized at competitive prices. Only then will driving assistant systems become widespread. The same applies to future automated and autonomous driving systems. In other words: systems that are as reliable as those in an aircraft and, yet, still affordable for every car owner.
In addition to the increased requirements for IT (information technology) security, there is a growing need for increased computing performance to process the continuous stream of sensor information. In 2006, an average car had 40 sensors. This now has risen to between 80 and 90. It might be more than twice this number in the automated car in 2025. Cars that drive themselves will require a much greater real-time computer performance, and domain computer architectures connected via high-speed data busses will become an integral part of the car itself.
Clearly, it is important to create redundant systems that guarantee a fail-safe operation as well as operational safety. The partitioning of the domain architectures has to satisfy the requirements for increased computing performance as well as automotive quality and operational safety.
Less traffic jams, more efficient use of time
Technical innovations only succeed if they improve our everyday life. Today, around 80 percent of all traffic accidents are caused by human error. The car of the future will reduce this number and make road transport safer. In 2015, drivers spent an average of 38 hours in traffic jams. This is not only frustrating but also costs the economy billions of Euros. Intelligent services will make it possible to avoid traffic jams wherever possible in the future. When unavoidable jams happen, the driver can at least spend the time efficiently by letting the vehicle handle the driving. Additional benefits can be found in the transport of goods, which becomes safer and more environmentally friendly with automated driving.
“The Fifth Element”
The movie “The Fifth Element” depicts a vision of the year 2263. The traffic of a mega-city extends not just in two but in three dimensions. Most cars float evenly in an autonomous mode on invisible roads separated into several levels. Although driving is mostly automated in this future scenario, the world can only be saved through the driving skills of the cab driver Korben Dallas, played by Bruce Willis. Infineon convinced that driving a car will become safer and much more comfortable while the individual driving pleasure will remain.
The next 247 years will be exciting. Let’s drive and see where the journey will take us.
