Bangalore, India, 12th October, 2016 — Worldwide semiconductor capital spending is projected to decline 0.3 percent in 2016, to $64.6 billion, according to Gartner, Inc. (see Table 1). This is up slightly from the estimated 0.7 percent decline in Gartner’s previous quarterly forecast. The market is expected to return to growth in 2017, increasing 7.4 percent.
“As we enter the final
China remains something of a wild card, after the announcement of multiple fab projects that will aid overall growth through the end of the decade, while a stronger U.S. dollar in 2016 will remain a key factor in determining revenue growth of semiconductor manufacturers.
Table 1
Worldwide Semiconductor Capital Spending and Equipment Spending Forecast, 2015-2018 (Millions of Dollars)
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
| Semiconductor Capital Spending ($M) |
64,750.8 |
64,586.5 |
69,342.9 |
71,265.2 |
| Growth (%) | 0.3 | -0.3 | 7.4 | 2.8 |
| Wafer-Level Manufacturing Equipment ($M) |
33,248.1 |
35,383.1 |
37,701.7 |
38,695.7 |
| Growth (%) | -1.1 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 2.6 |
| Wafer Fab Equipment ($M) | 31,485.4 | 33,557.1 | 35,695.0 | 36,460.4 |
| Growth (%) | -1.3 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 2.1 |
| Wafer-Level Packaging and Assembly Equipment ($M) |
1,762.7 |
1,825.9 |
2,006.6 |
2,235.3 |
| Growth (%) | 4.1 | 3.6 | 9.9 | 11.4 |
As with previous years, smartphones, mobile devices, solid-state drives (SSDs) and theInternet of Things (IoT) will remain the principal drivers of the semiconductor market for the immediate future, particularly for foundries that manufacture most of the wafers of logic chips for these devices. Although unit shipments of smartphones have slowed down, the fast migration to 4G LTE in high-end smartphones has driven the wafer demand of advanced process technologies, while the adoption of fingerprint sensors, touch display drivers andactive-matrix dynamic light-emitting diodes (AMOLEDs) by Chinese smartphones has made full use of 200mm foundries’ 0.18-micron capacity.
From a device perspective, DRAM conditions in the first half of 2016 were worse, but the market hit bottom at midyear. There is now tightening supply, and better demand has pulled the market into an undersupply for the second half of the year. At the start of 2017, a weaker demand environment will create a brief technical oversupply, but the industry will then move back into an undersupply for the remainder of 2017 and into 2018.
After nearly three years of oversupply, there was a pronounced shortage of NAND in the third quarter of 2016, and 3D NAND production ramp challenges persist. 2017 is expected to see a favorable supply/demand balance that loosens up by the end of the year. Substantial capacity additions during the second half of the year along with 3D NAND technology maturation from some vendors will contribute to the favorable supply/demand balance. 2016 spending on wafer-level manufacturing equipment will be up 6.4 percent, driven by logic manufacturers ramping to 10nm and memory players moving to 3D NAND.
This research is produced by Gartner’s Semiconductor Manufacturing program. This research program, which is part of the overall semiconductor research group, provides a comprehensive view of the entire semiconductor industry, from manufacturing to device and application market trends. Gartner clients can see more in “Forecast: Semiconductor Capital Spending, Worldwide, 3Q16 Update.”
